Blog Layout

Understanding scarcity and volatility to forecast and benchmark organic content visibility

Chasefive Management

We have all come across those quirky cat memes online that manage to rack up millions of views; it all seems rather effortless. However, gaining organic exposure for businesses is not an easy task. Before investing valuable resources in chasing organic exposure, it is crucial to effectively benchmark and forecast organic content performance to better manage this critical channel.

When considering how to rationalize organic content exposure, there are five key points to keep in mind. 


Your organic content reach potential is finite (like your addressable audience)

The potential reach of your organic content is inherently limited, much like the size of your addressable audience. Your online exposure is contingent upon a finite available inventory, primarily determined by the size of your addressable audience. For instance, a business with an addressable target audience of 100,000 potential customers can expand its 'Reach' to a target equal to 100,000 users (where 'Reach' is defined here as the total number of unique users exposed to a particular piece of content within a given time frame).


Your audience's organic content consumption activity (impressions) is finite

Since the consumption of online content is typically measured in impressions, to help us measure the frequency of exposure, the second point to keep in mind is that the time your addressable audience can spend consuming content online is limited. Your audience's engagement with organic content is inherently limited. The extent of your organic reach is constrained by your audience's capacity and interest in consuming online content. For instance, if your addressable audience comprises 100,000 individuals, each capable of consuming 10 impressions per month of your organic content, the available inventory would be capped at 1 million impressions per month. This underscores the significance of understanding your audience's consumption patterns and the pivotal role it plays in determining the potential reach of your organic content.


Now that we have an idea of the best-case-scenario organic content inventory size. Let's look at how to refine your projections.


Online publishers compete for the same finite inventory

All online publishers are vying for a share of the same limited inventory in the realm of organic exposure. This competition extends beyond direct competitors to include other publishers seeking a slice of the finite attention from the audience. As an illustration, a pet insurance company may find itself competing for a portion of the end users' finite attention with a dog training business despite the absence of direct commercial rivalry. 


Understanding and navigating this broader competitive landscape is integral to optimizing your organic exposure strategy. Therefore, aiming for 100% of the potentially available inventory is not a realistic forecast. 


Some publishers will pay for (buy) some of the available organic inventory  

The amount of time people spend online consuming organic content is a commodity bought and sold on the advertising market; potential organic content inventory is only available until someone buys it. 

Certain publishers may opt to purchase a portion of the available organic inventory (in which case that bundle of inventory impressions turns from 'organic' to 'paid'). 

Understanding the competitive dynamics at play in securing visibility and audience attention in the digital landscape is crucial to forecast accurately.

 

The organic content inventory fluctuates with seasonality and industry trends

Organic impression inventory is subject to fluctuations influenced by seasonal changes and industry trends. This means the availability of organic impressions may decrease at times, and it may not consistently reach peak levels. Forecasting organic reach performance on a monthly or quarterly basis needs to account for seasonality and external factors. 

Careful planning and avoid overexposure to organic inventory


Effectively managing the performance of organic content requires a strategic focus on several key elements. Content pacing and quality of execution are only two of the multiple factors to account for when forecasting and monitoring performance.


To learn more about modern marketing planning and management sign up free at the FAPI Marketing Framework Academy

By Chasefive Management February 19, 2025
Marketing departments worldwide allocate their budgets strategically across three major cost categories: Media (Advertising), Tools (Martech), and Labor (External Resources like Freelancers and Contractors). The latest data, expressed in billions of dollars, provides insight into how businesses prioritize their marketing investments. Marketing Budget Allocation Overview The global marketing spend is distributed as follows: Media (Advertising): $1,088 billion (87%) Tools (Martech Software & Platforms): $121 billion (10%) Labor (Freelancers & Contractors): $45 billion (3%) This breakdown reveals a strong emphasis on paid media as the dominant marketing expenditure, with a notable portion allocated to marketing technology (Martech) tools, while external human resources remain a smaller but significant component of marketing budgets . Key Insights from the Data 1. Media (Advertising) Takes the Lion’s Share (87%) Advertising continues to be the largest cost item, accounting for nearly nine out of every ten dollars spent on marketing. Businesses rely heavily on paid media channels, including: Digital Advertising (Google Ads, Social Media Ads, Display Networks, and Programmatic Buying) Traditional Advertising (TV, Radio, Print, and Outdoor Media) Influencer and Sponsorship Campaigns The sheer dominance of media spend highlights the industry’s dependence on customer acquisition and brand awareness campaigns, fueled by digital transformation and the increasing role of online advertising in global markets. 2. Martech Tools Account for 10% of Spending Marketing technology, or Martech, has emerged as a critical enabler of modern marketing strategies. At $121 billion, Martech spend includes: Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Software Marketing Automation Platforms (e.g., HubSpot, Marketo, Salesforce) SEO, Analytics, and AI-driven Personalization Tools Email and Content Marketing Software The Martech investment reflects the growing need for data-driven decision-making, with companies focusing on automation, personalization, and efficiency in customer engagement. 3. External Labor (Freelancers & Contractors) Remains a Small but Strategic Component (3%) Despite the rise of freelancers, gig workers, and marketing contractors, spending on external labor accounts for just $45 billion globally. This category includes: Freelance Copywriters, Designers, and Developers Performance Marketing Consultants SEO & PPC Specialists Fractional CMOs and External Strategy Advisors Many companies leverage contractors for specialized projects, particularly in content marketing, SEO, and campaign execution, rather than hiring full-time employees. The 3% allocation suggests that while outsourcing is a cost-effective approach, most companies still rely on in-house teams and agency partnerships for execution. Trends Shaping Marketing Spend in 2024 and Beyond 1. Shift Toward Performance-Based Media Spend With advertising accounting for the majority of budgets, there is increasing pressure on ROI-driven ad spending. Companies are moving toward performance marketing strategies , where every dollar spent is measured against direct business impact (leads, conversions, and revenue growth). 2. Martech Investments in AI and Automation As Martech tools continue to evolve with AI and machine learning, companies are prioritizing platforms that streamline workflows, improve targeting, and enhance customer experiences. Expect Martech’s share to grow as businesses seek efficiency through predictive analytics, chatbots, and AI-driven personalization. 3. Growth in Freelance & Fractional Roles While external labor spending remains relatively low, the rise of fractional CMOs, freelance growth marketers, and contract-based specialists is changing how companies approach talent. Businesses are embracing flexible workforce models, particularly for highly specialized skills in digital and performance marketing. How Companies Can Optimize Their Marketing Budgets Given the current spending distribution, marketing leaders must: Ensure media spend is performance-driven, prioritizing ROI and customer acquisition cost (CAC) management. Leverage Martech strategically, investing in automation, AI, and data analytics for efficiency. Balance in-house and outsourced expertise, using freelancers and contractors for specialized, cost-effective execution without unnecessary overhead costs. The marketing landscape is evolving, and agility in budget allocation will define competitive advantage in the years ahead. Would you like a more detailed industry-specific breakdown or recommendations based on company size? 🚀
By Chasefive Management January 27, 2025
To understand how AI is likely to affect the organization of marketing functions, it is helpful to briefly review the evolution of marketing teams over time. The pre-2000s was an era of marketing generalists working closely with a limited number of vendors and channels to control end-to-end production. Their main focus was on core marketing direction, communication and branding, with little emphasis on specialized technical skills. The marketing generalist concentrated on executing a unified marketing direction. While this approach created a coherent and streamlined marketing execution, it was not scalable. This may seem like a excessive detour but bear with me as we watch the curve of the marketing generalist unfold.
By Chasefive Management January 1, 2025
The FAPI Marketing Framework highlights accountability in marketing, assigning clear responsibilities to various roles and ensuring that marketing efforts align with overall business objectives. The framework promotes a culture of shared responsibility for marketing success by defining key performance indicators (KPIs) relevant to all stakeholders. Here's a breakdown of how accountability is addressed within the FAPI Marketing Framework: 1. Clear Roles and Responsibilities: o Plan Master: The Plan Master is key within the FAPI Marketing Framework, overseeing the implementation of marketing projects. They build a dedicated team, enable effective communication, and coordinate activities to achieve marketing objectives while ensuring alignment with the business's overall goals for a strong return on investment (ROI). o Functional Leads: Functional Leads are vital for cross-functional support, coordinating resources and expertise for effective plans. They collaborate with the Plan Master to develop specific modules and ensure their area aligns with the overall marketing strategy. o Production Executives: Production Executives play a crucial role in executing specific marketing tasks outlined in the plan. They are responsible for ensuring that the work delivered meets high-quality standards and aligns with the overall brand and messaging of the marketing campaign. o Leadership Team: The Leadership Team is essential in guiding the organization by setting strategic direction and ensuring alignment with business goals. They monitor project progress, track milestones, assess marketing effectiveness, and evaluate return on marketing investment (ROMI). The team also provides guidance and makes key decisions during challenges. 2. Defined Deliverables: The FAPI Framework is structured with clear deliverables at each stage, making progress and accountability visible. The Strategy Brief is the deliverable for the Frame Module, outlining the business vision and strategic goals. The Marketing Playbook is the deliverable for the Architecture Module, providing a detailed operational document for execution. In the Production Module, the activities themselves serve as deliverables, and in the Insights Module, reports and recommended actions are the output. These deliverables act as milestones and ensure accountability at each phase of the project. The Insights Module highlights the crucial role of data-driven decision-making in marketing strategies. It advocates for the use of precise metrics to assess marketing performance, allowing for necessary adjustments. 4. Cross-Functional Collaboration: The framework promotes cross-functional teamwork, ensuring that all stakeholders are involved in the marketing process. This includes stakeholders from different departments, who participate and contribute through project events, thus fostering a shared sense of ownership and accountability. By promoting communication and understanding across departments, the FAPI Framework minimizes the potential for misalignment and ensures that marketing efforts contribute to the overall business objectives. 5. Continuous Improvement and Adaptability: The framework values continuous improvement, using feedback loops to learn from successes and failures. This iterative approach encourages teams to adapt their marketing strategies based on performance data, holding them accountable for ongoing optimization and growth. 6. Budgetary Accountability: The FAPI Framework also emphasizes resource stewardship and efficient use of resources. The Plan Master is responsible for overseeing the budget and ensuring a return on marketing investment (ROMI), promoting accountability in financial management. In summary, the FAPI Marketing Framework promotes accountability by establishing clear roles, defining deliverables, emphasizing data-driven decision-making, encouraging cross-functional collaboration, and promoting continuous improvement. This comprehensive approach ensures that all stakeholders are aware of their responsibilities and are held accountable for their contributions to the marketing success of the organization. Use the FAPI Planner to drive accountability and efficiency The FAPI Marketing Planner is a cloud-based tool designed to streamline marketing planning and management by implementing the FAPI Marketing Framework. It offers a user-friendly interface with pre-populated modules and components, enhancing team collaboration and task management. Request a FAPI Planner demo for free
By Chasefive Management November 26, 2024
With the surge of AI and its revolutionary impact on marketing, businesses are increasingly interested in how AI influences marketing productivity. To answer this question, it is essential first to understand how marketing productivity is calculated. According to the FAPI Marketing Framework , marketing productivity is determined by dividing the marketing output by the production input costs . The input costs of production consist of the combined expenses for Labor (L) , Media (M) , and Tools (T) as illustrated in the diagram below.
By Chasefive Management November 18, 2024
In the dynamic world of marketing, frameworks serve as blueprints to streamline strategies and drive results. The FAPI Marketing Framework, a structured approach for aligning marketing efforts with business goals, introduces a key role that acts as the linchpin of its success: the Plan Master . Much like the conductor of an orchestra, the Plan Master ensures that every element of a marketing campaign harmonizes to create a cohesive and impactful performance. Let’s dive into the intricacies of this pivotal role and its significance in transforming strategy into results. The Plan Master as a Vision Decoder The journey begins with the Plan Master receiving the overarching business goals—target audiences, budgets, and competitive landscapes—from leadership. Rather than merely executing these directives, the Plan Master serves as a vision decoder , translating these broad objectives into actionable, detailed strategy briefs. This process resembles turning a rough sketch into a high-definition blueprint, ensuring the business vision is clear, structured, and ready for execution. The Architect of Marketing Operations Once the strategy is defined, the Plan Master transitions into their next role: architecting the operational plan . Drawing from the FAPI Marketing Framework’s “Architecture Module,” they design the systems, resources, tools, and processes required for seamless execution. This stage demands a deep understanding of various marketing disciplines to ensure every piece fits together. From foundational elements to detailed workflows, the Plan Master creates a roadmap that balances creativity with operational efficiency. Hands-On Leadership in Production Unlike traditional strategists who step back after planning, the Plan Master is deeply involved in the Production Module . They oversee the day-to-day execution of the marketing plan, coordinating specialists, tracking progress, and ensuring projects stay within scope and budget. To maintain momentum, the Plan Master employs rituals like kickoff meetings, regular check-ins, and collaborative whiteboarding sessions. These practices not only foster clear communication but also cultivate a shared sense of ownership among the team, preventing missteps and keeping everyone aligned. Master of Insights: Leveraging Data for Continuous Improvement At the heart of the Plan Master’s responsibilities lies their ability to harness the power of data. As the “Master of Insights,” they analyze performance metrics to optimize strategies and drive continuous improvement. By connecting these metrics, the Plan Master weaves a compelling narrative that showcases how marketing efforts directly contribute to business success. 
By Chasefive Management November 6, 2024
This excerpt from a podcast episode introduces the FAPI marketing framework, a structured approach designed to align marketing efforts with overall business goals and drive better results. The podcast explores the four key modules of FAPI: Frame, which establishes strategic alignment between marketing and the company's vision; Architecture, which creates detailed plans to implement the marketing strategy; Production, which focuses on executing the plans and leveraging technology like AI for efficiency; and Insights, which uses data analysis to understand customer behavior, measure results, and make informed adjustments. The conversation highlights the importance of clear communication, collaboration, and data-driven decision making across all departments to ensure that marketing initiatives are effective and deliver real value. It also stresses the importance of embracing a customer-centric approach and adapting to the ever-evolving digital landscape. The podcast emphasizes that FAPI is not just a set of rules, but a flexible framework that can be tailored to fit any company's specific needs and goals. Join the FAPI Marketing Framework Academy to dive deeper into this powerful, adaptable approach. Register free.
More posts
Share by: